After a seven-month hiatus, SpaceX is set to launch a new, more powerful version of its Starship megarocket — reigniting a make-or-break testing campaign aimed at hashing out unprecedented rocketry challenges and getting the vehicle ready to carry NASA astronauts to the moon. The launch was scheduled for 7:30 p.m. EST on Thursday, but the countdown stalled at 40 seconds due to a pin that did not retract on the launch tower's arm. Another attempt is planned for the next evening.

Experts question whether this vehicle — or a competing spacecraft under development by the Jeff Bezos-founded Blue Origin — will be ready in time to sway the outcome of what U.S. lawmakers describe as an ongoing space race with China. The liftoff also comes during a period of mounting scrutiny around SpaceX, as the company heads for a record-shattering initial public offering. Explosive mishaps from previous Starship test flights tend to make investors squeamish. Andrew Chanin, CEO of investment firm ProcureAM, noted that there are likely more eyes on this test launch than ever before, calling it a risky move so close to the IPO. However, he added that fortune favors the bold.

Starship’s Explosive Record

SpaceX has notched some crucial early successes with Starship during uncrewed, suborbital test flights. In October 2024, the company first recovered the Super Heavy booster by landing it snugly in the metal arms of the 'Mechazilla' launch tower in Starbase, Texas. However, version 2 of Starship, which first flew in January 2025, faced several setbacks. During test flights in January and March 2025, the vehicle exploded near populated areas east of Florida, creating debris that hit roadways in Turks and Caicos and washed up onto Bahamian islands.

In May 2025, the launch system performed better, but the Starship spacecraft spun out of control as it descended toward its landing site in the Indian Ocean, and the Super Heavy booster exploded upon landing. Following these incidents, an explosion during a ground test in June 2025 spurred an emergency response in Brownsville, Texas. An incident report obtained by CNN described dispatchers forced into rapid-fire triage and public panic rippling across the region. Another explosive issue occurred during ground testing in November 2025 during a fueling test of a Starship V3 rocket. The vehicle was destroyed, but the test site incurred very little damage and nobody was hurt.

SpaceX has repeatedly said that such explosive errors are an integral part of its engineering approach. The company uses a strategy called 'rapid iterative development,' which emphasizes building prototypes quickly and accepting added risk during test flights. SpaceX maintains that this approach allows engineers to learn and adjust Starship’s design more cheaply and quickly than traditional methods. Senior manager of Starship operations Jenna Lowe remarked that every test is a success because of the enormous amount of data collected, allowing the team to figure out where things will go wrong in the future.

What to Expect with Flight 12

Thursday’s flight test debuts the brand-new Version 3 prototype, outfitted with head-to-toe upgrades designed to make the system more robust. The new launch vehicle stands slightly taller than the last model, and both the Super Heavy booster and Starship spacecraft are equipped with a new generation of Raptor rocket engines that pack a considerably heftier punch. Each of Super Heavy’s 33 engines will deliver more than 50,000 additional pounds of force at liftoff. The engines are also lighter, which should give better efficiency and increased performance.

Importantly, SpaceX aims to eventually reuse the entire rocket, which has never been accomplished in the history of spaceflight. Most rockets are discarded entirely after flight; SpaceX was the first company to figure out how to reuse the first stage with its far smaller Falcon 9 vehicle. However, the goals for Starship represent myriad complex design and technological challenges. During the hourlong test flight, SpaceX will not attempt to land or recover the booster or ship. The Super Heavy booster will vault the ship toward space before breaking away. Both will be on suborbital trajectories but will attempt to make controlled landings in the ocean.

Pivoting to the Moon

SpaceX initially advertised Starship as the vehicle that would carry the first humans to Mars, and CEO Elon Musk emphasized that vision as recently as mid-2025. But the company has since made clear that its focus has shifted to first pursuing lunar exploration. Specifically, Starship is the vehicle that NASA intends to use to return humans to the moon’s surface, and the Trump administration hopes to accomplish that feat by 2028. If successful, Starship promises to dramatically reshape the global space industry by lowering the price-per-pound of hauling cargo to orbit by orders of magnitude.

SpaceX advertises Starship as capable of hauling between 150 and 250 metric tons of cargo to orbit. A recent financial disclosure from a SpaceX customer put the vehicle’s per-launch sticker price at about $90 million. For context, SpaceX’s Falcon 9, currently the most active commercial rocket, launches up to about 22.8 metric tons for $60 to $75 million. In an IPO filing, SpaceX said it aims to reduce the cost to reach orbit by 99% or more relative to the historical average launch cost.

Mounting Timeline Pressure

As SpaceX prepares for the test flight, timeline pressure is mounting. China plans to land its taikonauts on the moon by 2030. While NASA notched a massive win with its Artemis II mission, which carried a quartet of astronauts on a historic lunar flyby in April, the space agency does not yet have a vehicle capable of landing humans on the moon’s surface. The Starship program is racing against Blue Origin to provide such a spacecraft for NASA.

Sean Duffy, who briefly served as NASA’s acting administrator, announced that the space agency would use whichever lander was ready first to complete the planned 2028 landing mission, a direct public admonishment of SpaceX. Previously, Starship had been specifically selected to complete that task. Blue Origin plans to debut a preliminary design of its lunar lander later this year, which is more similar in design to Apollo-era vehicles. Starship packs far more power and overall is a more complicated vehicle than the Apollo landers. NASA intends to leverage Starship as a nimble in-space transportation system capable of carrying out complex missions to hard-to-reach areas of the moon, such as the resource-rich south pole.

But a long road lies ahead. Starship still needs to demonstrate safe orbit around Earth, propellant transfer between ships for lunar journey, and an uncrewed test flight to the lunar surface. The actual lunar lander would be a modified version of the V3 ship, packed with life support equipment. NASA watchdogs have warned about Starship’s complexity and daunting technical risks. A report by NASA’s independent oversight group noted challenges during the ongoing flight test program, and the Inspector General's report highlighted gaps in testing posture and crew survival analyses. If the landers encounter a catastrophic event, NASA would not have the capability to rescue stranded astronauts. Despite this, ProcureAM’s Chanin said it wouldn’t be surprising to see Starship in the lead.

Source: KOAT News