When Will Trump Answer the Big 2024 Question?

Sign up here to get On Politics successful your inbox connected Tuesdays and Thursdays.

Last week, during a 51-minute interrogation connected “The John Fredericks Show,” a vigor programme syndicated crossed Virginia, erstwhile President Donald J. Trump dodged a half-dozen opportunities to accidental whether helium is readying to tally for president erstwhile again successful 2024.

Mr. Fredericks, who alongside his vigor gig besides served arsenic a president of Mr. Trump’s campaigns successful Virginia, began questions with “If you’re inaugurated arsenic president again successful 2025,” and “I deliberation you’re going to tally and triumph successful 2024.” He asked, “How galore seats bash the Republicans person to triumph successful 2022 to animate you to tally successful 2024?”

Hard-hitting journalism this was not.

Still, it did chopped to the bosom of the biggest question successful Republican politics: When volition Mr. Trump denote his plans for 2024?

For months the champion moving mentation had been that helium would hold arsenic agelong arsenic possible, some to frost the remainder of the imaginable 2024 Republican tract and to support arsenic overmuch attraction arsenic imaginable connected himself, his endorsements and governmental proclamations.

In the meantime the erstwhile president has not recovered immoderate caller outlet for his governmental attention. There’s nary room successful the works oregon bequest task similar President Barack Obama’s nonprofit radical Organizing for Action (which itself shuttered successful 2018 aft fading into obsolescence). Mr. Trump is inactive precise overmuch invested successful his ain mendacious claims astir the 2020 election, pushing section Republican officials to audit their ballots and voting machines portion trumpeting the phony thought that immoderate predetermination that Democrats triumph is simply a fraud.

All of that puts him connected the aforesaid leafage arsenic overmuch of today’s Republican electorate.

“If Donald Trump runs successful ’24, I deliberation he’ll wide the field, beryllium the nominee and I deliberation helium wins handily against Biden oregon Harris,” said Representative Jim Banks of Indiana, who arsenic the president of the blimpish Republican Study Committee has hosted astir each imaginable non-Trump campaigner to talk to his radical of much than 150 Republican House members this year.

Mr. Banks is hardly agnostic connected the taxable of Mr. Trump. His Capitol Hill bureau is filled with Trump memorabilia, including a framed beforehand leafage of The Washington Post from the time aft the erstwhile president’s archetypal Senate acquittal connected impeachment charges, autographed by Mr. Trump himself. In January helium voted against accepting the results of election, and successful July helium was 1 of 2 Republicans whom Speaker Nancy Pelosi refused to spot connected the commission investigating the Jan. 6 onslaught connected the Capitol. He has connected his unit the lad of Tucker Carlson, 1 of the astir vocal pro-Trump hosts connected Fox News.

In our speech connected Monday afternoon, Mr. Banks, who said helium was successful play interaction with Mr. Trump, said helium hadn’t straight discussed if oregon erstwhile the erstwhile president mightiness statesman a 2024 campaign. He hadn’t been told by Mr. Trump, arsenic Representative Jim Jordan said past week successful an speech recorded by a hidden camera, that the erstwhile president was “about ready” to denote different campaign.

All that leaves the tract of would-be Republican statesmanlike candidates frozen. Those taking steps that could pb to a 2024 tally see Govs. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Kristi Noem of South Dakota; Senators Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio; and the erstwhile Trump furniture members Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley. They each beryllium varying levels of governmental allegiance to Mr. Trump; polling shows nary of them would beryllium overmuch of a menace to dent Mr. Trump’s clasp connected the enactment adjacent if they tried.

At the aforesaid time, Democrats, fretting astir President Biden’s sagging lasting successful nationalist sentiment polls aft the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, would mostly beryllium thrilled to marque what is shaping up to beryllium a challenging midterm predetermination adjacent twelvemonth a referendum connected Mr. Trump. The president’s enactment astir ever loses dozens of seats successful the House during the midterms; Democrats picked up 41 seats successful 2018 and Republicans flipped 63 successful 2010.

For the moment, determination are signs that Republicans are much energized crossed the country. They’re inundating schoolhouse committee meetings to speech astir however contention is taught successful classrooms, and successful immoderate parts of the state they’re filling campaigner grooming rooms astatine a gait not seen since 2009.

A imaginable 3rd Trump campaign, started much than 3 years earlier the adjacent statesmanlike predetermination and 18 months up of the adjacent Iowa caucuses, could refocus each of his party’s vigor onto himself and distant from the right-wing taste issues different Republicans spot arsenic governmental winners.

“He brings excitement among the Republican Party basal that is unmatched by anybody else,” Mr. Banks said.

Yet Mr. Banks had nary nationalist proposal for Mr. Trump astir when, oregon if, to statesman different campaign. Mr. Trump would assistance Republicans successful the midterms arsenic arsenic a campaigner oregon a noncandidate, Mr. Banks said, earlier adding that Republicans’ likelihood of winning backmost the White House would not beryllium diminished whether Mr. Trump, oregon anyone else, was the nominee.

“He’s savvy capable to cognize the close timing amended than I do,” Mr. Banks said of a imaginable Trump run launch. “I’m watching each the aforesaid quality and watching each the rallies that you are. I’m speculating that he’s moving successful that direction.”

The authorities of the California recall

California is down to the last week of voting earlier the Sept. 14 callback election of Gov. Gavin Newsom. You’ll surely spot a batch of California governmental quality betwixt present and adjacent Tuesday: President Biden is readying a run halt for Mr. Newsom, a chap Democrat, White House officials said, portion of a party-wide unreserved to promote Californians to instrumentality the ballots each registered elector successful the authorities has received successful the mail.

In a authorities Mr. Biden carried by 29 percent points past year, adjacent a constrictive triumph for Mr. Newsom would nonstop daze waves done Democratic politics. If Mr. Newsom is recalled and replaced with a Republican, expect an unending rending of garments and blame-casting among liberals comparable successful caller representation lone to the absorption to Mr. Trump’s triumph of 2016.

Should a Republican instrumentality power of the governor’s bureau successful America’s largest authorities — location to its largest colonisation of Democratic voters — that idiosyncratic would inactive look Democratic supermajorities successful the State Legislature but would beryllium successful a presumption to name authorities judges, power the bully pulpit and perchance sanction a replacement for a United States senator, perchance shifting power of the 50-50 chamber.

Whatever happens for Republicans, the California callback is the equivalent of recovered money. They either triumph a stunning upset, travel adjacent and spook Democrats into a play of psyche searching, oregon suffer by a comfy margin, successful which lawsuit they volition inactive person forced Mr. Newsom into moving for his governmental beingness a twelvemonth earlier an expected re-election run successful 2022.

On Politics is besides disposable arsenic a newsletter. Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox.

Is determination thing you deliberation we’re missing? Anything you privation to spot much of? We’d emotion to perceive from you. Email america astatine onpolitics@nytimes.com.