What Exit Polling Tells Us About Voters in the Recall

Elections|What the exit polling tells america astir the California electorate, and wherefore it mightiness beryllium wrong.

• Sept. 15, 2021Updated 5:47 p.m. ET

The lone exit canvass from California’s callback predetermination showed Mr. Newsom winning with an antithetic coalition. In a departure from astir each caller election, longstanding radical and taste divides betwixt achromatic voters and voters of colour seemed to vanish.

According to the exits, 63 percent of radical of colour and 60 percent of Latino voters chose “No” connected the question of whether to region the governor, compared to 59 percent of achromatic voters. Typically, Democrats fare somewhat worse among achromatic voters successful California, but overmuch amended among different voters. The 63 percent and 60 percent showings of radical of colour and Latinos would beryllium the weakest for a California Democrat successful memory.

If true, the exit canvass effect would people a seminal infinitesimal successful California’s governmental evolution. It would suggest that increasing Democratic spot among assemblage graduates — and weakness among those without degrees — has begun to importantly trim the spread betwixt achromatic voters and others, and astir destruct it altogether successful the state.

But the existent results of the callback predetermination archer a antithetic story. They don’t amusement overmuch of thing antithetic astatine all. The results suggest that Mr. Newsom won with a reasonably emblematic conjugation for a California Democrat successful caller years, 1 not excessively dissimilar from the 1 that elected him successful 2018 and elected President Biden successful 2020.

The politician whitethorn person fared somewhat worse among nonwhite voters than Democrats did a decennary ago, but successful the end, California voted for the Democrat — and it seems to person done truthful successful astir the aforesaid mode it has successful caller cycles, including among Asian and Latino voters.

Millions of votes stay to beryllium counted, and a clearer representation whitethorn look successful the coming days arsenic much votes are tallied. But truthful far, the county-by-county results are astir identical to those from 2018 oregon 2020. There’s lone 1 region — Riverside County — that flipped from 2018 truthful far, and it flipped to Mr. Newsom.

On mean successful the callback election, the “No” ballot successful a emblematic region was lone astir 2 percent points antithetic than Mr. Newsom’s ballot stock successful 2018. It’s hard to reconcile the stableness of the results truthful acold with the immense displacement successful Mr. Newsom’s conjugation indicated by the exit poll. The results don’t amusement grounds of a stark drop-off successful Democratic enactment among Latino voters, either.

Mr. Newsom performed astir arsenic good arsenic helium did 4 years agone successful comparatively divers Southern California, including successful heavy Latino stretches of the agrarian Central Valley and the Imperial Valley, wherever Democrats lone vie connected the spot of Latino voters.

Still, Mr. Newsom’s enactment determination was already comparatively anemic for a Democrat: He often fared astir arsenic poorly arsenic Mr. Biden, and worse than Gov. Jerry Brown did successful 2014. The 2018 exit canvass showed Mr. Newsom winning 64 percent of Latino voters, down from the 73 percent stock won by Mr. Brown successful 2014.

The exit canvass connected Tuesday was conducted by Edison Research and sponsored by large tv quality networks. Unlike accepted in-person exit polls, astir California exit canvass interviews are typically conducted by telephone to scope aboriginal and mail-in voters. This year, the callback exit canvass added an online and substance connection component.

It is imaginable the further online and substance interviews whitethorn person contributed to immoderate of the antithetic shifts that were evident successful the poll.