Football matches in top European leagues are becoming more predictable

Computer predictions for the result of European shot matches implicit a 26-year play go much close successful caller years

Humans 15 December 2021

By Chris Stokel-Walker

A lucifer betwixt KRC Genk and Club Brugge successful the Belgian First Division A

Joris Verwijst/BSR Agency/Getty Images

Football matches person go much predictable implicit time, according to an investigation of 87,816 matches crossed 11 European leagues.

The survey covers the results of matches betwixt 1993 and 2019, including 10,044 each from England’s Premier League and Spain’s La Liga, arsenic good arsenic starring divisions successful Belgium, Greece, Scotland and Turkey, among others.

A machine exemplary that was fixed information from the matches tried to foretell whether the location oregon distant squad would triumph by looking astatine the show of the teams successful erstwhile matches successful the league. The exemplary didn’t number immoderate drawn matches, which excluded betwixt a 4th and a 3rd of the full matches from the analysis.

“Our exemplary isn’t the astir accurate,” says Taha Yasseri astatine University College Dublin successful Ireland. “I’m definite determination are amended models, but it’s precise elemental and you tin spell backmost 26 years and bash the workout arsenic if you were doing the prediction 26 years ago.”

The mean AUC people – which measures however good the machine exemplary performed – was astir 0.75, meaning that the exemplary correctly predicted the lucifer effect 75 per cent of the time.

Seven of the 11 leagues that were studied saw an summation successful predictability implicit time. Richer leagues, specified arsenic the Premier League and La Liga, had higher AUC scores than worse-funded ones, similar Belgium’s First Division A.

The survey recovered a correlation betwixt predictability and inequality, successful presumption of the organisation of points betwixt teams astatine the extremity of the play – that is, lucifer results are predicted correctly much often successful leagues wherever the points are dispersed much unequally.

The researchers suggest that shot is becoming much predictable due to the fact that inequality betwixt the richest and poorest teams has grown, arsenic prize wealth and different revenues person accrued and palmy clubs tin walk much connected players.

The survey besides recovered that home squad advantage is becoming little of a origin successful matches. In France, for instance, location teams took astir two-thirds of points successful 1993, but astir 58 per cent of them successful 2019.

Joey O’Brien astatine the University of Limerick, Ireland, says the researchers marque rigorous statistical arguments that shot has go much predictable. “Perhaps, astatine a much philosophical level, 1 could besides question whether this predictability is bully for the game,” helium says. “Do fans get conscionable arsenic overmuch enjoyment observing skilled teams predictably performing strongly?”

Journal reference: Royal Society Open Science, DOI: 10.1098/rsos.210617

More connected these topics:

• statistic
• sport
• maths