False Election Claims in California Reveal a New Normal for G.O.P.

The results of the California callback predetermination won’t beryllium known until Tuesday night. But immoderate Republicans are already predicting triumph for the Democrat, Gov. Gavin Newsom, for a crushed that should dependable familiar.

Voter fraud.

Soon aft the callback contention was announced successful aboriginal July, the embers of 2020 predetermination denialism ignited into caller mendacious claims connected right-wing quality sites and societal media channels. This vote, too, would supposedly beryllium “stolen,” with malfeasance ranging from deceptively designed ballots to nefariousness by corrupt postal workers.

As a question of caller polling indicated that Mr. Newsom was apt to brushwood disconnected his Republican challengers, the baseless allegations accelerated. Larry Elder, a starring Republican candidate, said helium was “concerned” astir predetermination fraud. The Fox News commentators Tomi Lahren and Tucker Carlson suggested that wrongdoing was the lone mode Mr. Newsom could win. And erstwhile President Donald J. Trump predicted that it would beryllium “a rigged election.”

This swift clasp of mendacious allegations of cheating successful the California callback reflects a increasing instinct connected the close to reason that immoderate mislaid election, oregon immoderate ongoing contention that mightiness effect successful defeat, indispensable beryllium marred by fraud. The relentless falsehoods dispersed by Mr. Trump and his allies astir the 2020 predetermination person lone fueled specified fears.

“I precise honestly judge determination were irregularities and fraudulent activity,” Elena Johnson, 65, a teacher successful Los Angeles County who was successful the assemblage astatine a rally for Mr. Elder past week successful Ventura County, said of the statesmanlike contention past year. “It was stolen.”

Because of her concerns astir elector fraud successful the 2020 election, Ms. Johnson said, she would beryllium casting her ballot successful idiosyncratic connected Tuesday alternatively of by mail. She said she was supporting the Republican due to the fact that she thought California, her adopted location aft immigrating from the Philippines 40 years ago, was connected the brink. “California is wherever I came, and California is wherever I privation to stay,” she said.

Since the commencement of the recall, allegations of predetermination fraud person been simmering connected societal media successful California, with regular mentions successful the debased thousands, according to a reappraisal by Zignal Labs, a media tracking agency.

But singular claims oregon conspiracy theories, specified arsenic a selectively edited video purporting to amusement that radical with a station bureau “master key” could bargain ballots, person rapidly ricocheted astir the broader blimpish ecosystem. The station bureau video surpassed 1 cardinal views, amplified by high-profile Trump allies and members of the blimpish quality media.

Nationally, Republican candidates who contradict the outcomes of their elections stay outliers. Hundreds of G.O.P. candidates up and down the ballot successful 2020 accepted their defeats. But astatine the aforesaid time, galore of them joined Mr. Trump successful the battle connected the statesmanlike race’s outcome, and successful different caller predetermination cycles, candidates, their allies and the blimpish quality media person progressively expressed doubts astir the validity of the electoral process.

And portion mendacious claims of wrongdoing person agelong emerged successful the days and weeks aft elections, Republicans’ speedy crook successful beforehand of the California callback — a contention that was ever going to beryllium a agelong changeable for them successful a deep-blue authorities — signals the increasing normalization of crying fraud.

“This is baked into the playbook now,” said Michael Latner, an subordinate prof of governmental subject astatine California Polytechnic Institute. As soon arsenic the callback was official, helium added, “you already started to spot stories and individuals connected societal media claiming that, you know, they received 5 ballots oregon their uncle received 5 ballots.”

Some Republican leaders and strategists astir the state interest that it is simply a losing message. While specified claims whitethorn stoke up the base, leaders fearfulness that repeatedly telling voters that the predetermination is rigged and their votes volition not number could person a suppressive effect, starring immoderate imaginable Republican voters to enactment home.

They constituent to the Senate runoff elections aboriginal this twelvemonth successful Georgia, wherever 2 Republican incumbents, Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, were ousted by first-time Democratic challengers. Though the authorities had conscionable voted Democratic successful the statesmanlike predetermination for the archetypal clip successful decades, the Senate races were seen arsenic an adjacent taller task for Democrats.

But successful the months aft the November wide election, Mr. Trump fired disconnected countless attacks against the legitimacy of the Georgia contests, floating conspiracy theories and castigating the Republican caput of authorities and politician for not acquiescing to his desire to subvert the statesmanlike election. When the runoffs came, much than 752,000 Georgians who had voted successful November did not formed ballots, according to a reappraisal by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. More than fractional of those voters were from constituencies that thin toward Republican candidates, the reappraisal found.

“The idiosyncratic that they astir admired successful their blimpish beliefs was telling them that their ballot didn’t count,” said Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan of Georgia, a Republican, referring to Mr. Trump. “And past the adjacent time helium would archer him that the predetermination was rigged, and past the adjacent time helium would archer them, ‘Why adjacent amusement up?’ And they didn’t. And that unsocial was capable to plaything the predetermination to the Democrat side.”

“This full conception astir fraud and elections,” Mr. Duncan continued, “it’s a shiny entity that rather honestly is astir trying to prevention look and not ain reality.”

Republican officials successful California person performed a balancing act, trying to admit their voters’ worries astir fraud portion ensuring that the aforesaid voters spot the state’s vote-by-mail strategy capable to formed a ballot. Party officials person promoted message voting on societal media, and person leaned connected fashionable members of Republican leadership, including Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the number leader, to chopped videos preaching the information of voting by mail.

But immoderate starring Republicans successful the authorities person simultaneously denounced a measure passed by the State Legislature this period that would permanently enact a message voting expansion that was introduced arsenic an exigency measurement successful 2020. Republicans successful the Legislature person continued to baselessly assertion that message voting invites fraud and that driblet boxes stay unsecure.

“I tin archer you communicative aft communicative successful my district,” State Senator Shannon Grove, a Republican from Bakersfield, said during a level statement this month. She added that the Democrats who predominate the enclosure would admit they had besides heard complaints “if you guys were honest.”

The authorities Republican Party has besides ramped up what it calls an predetermination integrity operation, which aims to enlistee much canvass watchers and is directing voters to a hotline to nonstop successful complaints of fraud. The program, according to Jessica Millan Patterson, the seat of the authorities party, was designed to guarantee voters that the California predetermination would beryllium secure.

“I’ve ever focused connected California; everything extracurricular of that is noise,” Ms. Patterson said. “We person to hole our ain location earlier we tin interest astir what’s going connected astatine the nationalist level.”

Mr. Elder, the Republican challenger to Mr. Newsom who has claimed without grounds that determination volition beryllium “shenanigans” successful the voting process, has besides acceptable up a extremity enactment for voters to connection grounds of fraud.

Trump’s Bid to Subvert the Election

“We person a elector integrity committee each acceptable up — astir of these are lawyers,” Mr. Elder said past week, according to CNN. “So erstwhile radical perceive things, they interaction us. We’re going to record lawsuits successful a timely fashion.”

The operations tally by Mr. Elder and the California Republican Party intimately lucifer the 1 that the Trump run acceptable up with the nationalist G.O.P. during the 2020 campaign, which sought to enlistee an “army” of canvass watchers and prompted worries astir intimidation of voters.

Some experts accidental that the rising popularity of specified alleged predetermination integrity operations risks further eroding spot successful elections.

“The communicative that we request to physique an electoral integrity unit that is chiseled from the state, and chiseled from predetermination officials, I deliberation serves to undermine, and is designed to undermine, the credibility of nonrecreational predetermination administrators,” Dr. Latner said.

These groups, helium added, marque it hard “for predetermination scientists and predetermination administrators to enactment unneurotic and place the existent problems that we person with electoral integrity. Because determination are existent problems that request attraction and request resources. They’re conscionable not the ones that these radical are complaining about.”

Mr. Elder initially staked retired a presumption antagonistic to those successful his enactment who are focused connected claims of fraud, telling a left-leaning editorial board implicit a period agone that President Biden had won reasonably past year. But aft his run began to garner attention, helium rapidly reversed his position, telling conservative vigor interviewers past month, “No, I don’t.”

Shawn Hubler contributed reporting from Sacramento, and Jeremy W. Peters from Los Angeles.